How Did AARO Decide Which Cases Mattered?

Introduction

When Sean Kirkpatrick told senators in April 2023 that AARO was examining more than 650 UAP cases, he also stressed that those cases were not treated as 650 equal mysteries. A key part of AARO’s methodology was triage: deciding which reports deserved immediate attention and which could be placed lower in the queue. According to Kirkpatrick, the office was built as a national-security and air-safety organisation rather than a public UFO clearing house. That meant reports near military bases, test ranges, intelligence facilities, restricted airspace, or other sensitive locations generally received higher priority than isolated sightings with little supporting data. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more…

This triage system is important when assessing both AARO’s work and Kirkpatrick’s credibility. Supporters argue it reflects a sensible intelligence process focused on potential threats. Critics counter that prioritisation can leave the public uncertain about how many unresolved cases remain unexplained. Understanding the mechanism helps explain why AARO’s case numbers alone do not reveal how seriously the office regarded any individual report.

How Did AARO Decide Which Cases Mattered?

During Senate testimony, Kirkpatrick described a process that began with a preliminary review of incoming reports. Cases were not simply counted and stored. Instead, analysts attempted an initial categorisation and then assigned priority based on factors relevant to security and intelligence concerns. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more…

His explanation indicated a rough hierarchy:

Kirkpatrick explained that an apparently passive object drifting with the wind would generally be considered less urgent than an object carrying equipment, and that object would in turn be less urgent than one displaying unusual manoeuvring behaviour. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgaaro mission process and data statistics patterns.13087Kirkpatrick: "Then we prioritize those based off of where they are. Are they attached to a national security area?Read more…

The goal was not to determine whether something was extraterrestrial. The goal was to determine whether it represented a potential intelligence surprise, surveillance platform, air-safety hazard, or adversary capability. [AARO]aaro.milThe Defense Department's UAP Mission & Civil AviationAAROThe Defense Department's UAP Mission & Civil AviationDecember 12, 2023 — 11 Jan 2023 — AARO is a uniquely-capable, Defense Department…Published: December 12, 2023

The First Scrub of Incoming Reports

AARO’s first step was to separate potentially explainable cases from those requiring deeper investigation. Kirkpatrick repeatedly argued that many reports arise from ordinary objects, sensor limitations, misidentifications, or incomplete information rather than genuinely anomalous phenomena. [The American Legion]legion.orgThe American Legion'No credible evidence' of UFO activity has been found…20 Apr 2023 — Kirkpatrick said 650 UAP cases are being revie…

To reduce bias, AARO reportedly used both intelligence specialists and scientific or technical analysts. Kirkpatrick described parallel reviews in which intelligence personnel and scientists examined the same evidence independently before comparing conclusions. The intention was to avoid forcing observations into either a purely intelligence-driven or purely technical framework. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgaaro 2024 annual report on uap.13762AARO 2024 Annual Report on UAPNov 14, 2024 — So, right now, we have this geographic bias where we are getting reports near the national s…

A case could therefore move quickly toward resolution if the available evidence strongly matched known aircraft, balloons, drones, satellites, atmospheric effects, or sensor artefacts. Cases lacking enough information could remain open even when no extraordinary explanation was suspected. This distinction became a recurring theme of Kirkpatrick’s public statements: unresolved did not automatically mean anomalous. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more… [The American Legion]legion.orgThe American Legion'No credible evidence' of UFO activity has been found…20 Apr 2023 — Kirkpatrick said 650 UAP cases are being revie…

Security Relevance, Payloads, and Unusual Movement

The most important factor in AARO’s triage process was whether a report touched an area of national-security concern. In both public testimony and official statements, Kirkpatrick emphasised that AARO gave priority to reports from Department of Defense and Intelligence Community personnel operating in or near sensitive locations. [senate]armed-services.senate.govkirkpatrick statementSenate Armed Services CommitteeDr. Sean Kirkpatrick19 Apr 2023 — AARO is leading a focused effort to better characterize, understand, and…

Examples of locations likely to attract higher scrutiny included:

An object detected near such facilities could represent surveillance, foreign collection activity, an unmanned system, or another security concern even if it ultimately proved mundane. That possibility justified greater investigative effort. [AARO]aaro.milUAP Reporting TrendsUAP Case Resolution Reports · UAP Reporting Trends · UAP Records · Congressional/Press Products · Resources · EFOIA R…

Kirkpatrick also highlighted behavioural indicators. Objects apparently carrying payloads, demonstrating controlled flight, or performing manoeuvres inconsistent with simple drifting received greater attention than observations that looked balloon-like or wind-driven. The reasoning was practical: if an object showed signs of purposeful operation, the likelihood of intelligence or security relevance increased. [Metabunk]metabunk.orgaaro mission process and data statistics patterns.13087Kirkpatrick: "Then we prioritize those based off of where they are. Are they attached to a national security area?Read more…

Importantly, unusual movement alone was not treated as proof of advanced technology. AARO’s approach was to gather more data and attempt attribution before drawing conclusions. Kirkpatrick consistently maintained that the office had not found verified evidence of extraterrestrial technology or physics-defying craft. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more…

Why Sensitive Areas Generated So Many Reports

One of the less obvious aspects of AARO’s work was the problem of collection bias. Many UAP reports originated near military facilities and restricted airspace not necessarily because unusual objects preferred those locations, but because those locations contained large numbers of trained observers and sophisticated sensors. [AARO]aaro.milAARODr. Sean Kirkpatrick Director, All-domain Anomaly…AARO is leading a focused effort to better characterize, understand, and attribu… [DNI]dni.govUnclassified 2022 Annual Report UAP2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial PhenomenaJun 25, 2021 — We continue to assess that this may result from a collection bias due t…

Official reporting repeatedly acknowledged this bias. AARO and ODNI reports noted that military airspace generated a disproportionate share of sightings because military personnel were more likely to report events and because advanced sensors were already operating in those environments. [AARO]aaro.milUNCLASSIFIED FY23 Consolidated Annual Report on UAP Oct 25 2023 1236AAROFiscal Year 2023 Consolidated Annual Report on…Most reports still reflect a bias towards restricted military airspace, a result of… [DNI]dni.gov4020 uap 20242024 Consolidated Annual Report on Unidentified…14 Nov 2024 — The classified report has been submitted to Congress, and the unclassifi…

This created a challenge for triage. Reports near sensitive areas were often the most important from a security perspective, but they were also the most common. Later AARO officials continued discussing the need to establish a baseline for what “normal” activity looked like around national-security sites so that genuinely unusual events could be distinguished from routine traffic, balloons, drones, and sensor effects. [U.S. Department of War]war.govusdis ronald moultrie and dr sean kirkpatrick media roundtable on the all domaiDepartment of WarUSD(I&S) Ronald Moultrie and Dr. Sean Kirkpatrick Media…16 Dec 2022 — In July, we established the All-domain Anomaly… [DefenseScoop]defensescoop.comuap aaro chief unveils pentagon annual caseload analysis new effortsThe truly anomalous': New AARO chief unveils Pentagon's…Nov 14, 2024 — Right now, his team of experts recognize that they have “this…

For readers evaluating Kirkpatrick’s testimony, this point is significant. The concentration of reports around military locations does not automatically indicate extraordinary activity. It may partly reflect where the United States is looking most closely. [AARO]aaro.caAAROAARO is your resource for education and training, a place for business owners like you to find support and your representation in gov…

Why Triage Helped and Limited Public Trust

From a management perspective, triage was essential. AARO had hundreds of reports, limited personnel, and a mandate that extended across air, maritime, space, and other domains. Prioritising cases with the greatest potential security implications allowed resources to be directed where they could have the most operational value. [AARO]aaro.milAARO Mission BriefAARO's reliance on DoD-sourced reports leads to a collection bias near major range and test facilities, special use air…

The approach also strengthened Kirkpatrick’s argument that AARO was applying a structured analytical process rather than treating every sighting as evidence of something extraordinary. His testimony consistently framed the mission around attribution, threat assessment, and data quality. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more…

However, the same process generated criticism. Because AARO focused heavily on cases near sensitive areas and because many investigations relied on classified data, outsiders often had limited visibility into why one case received attention while another did not. Some UFO researchers viewed the office’s emphasis on national-security relevance as too narrow, arguing that potentially significant reports outside military environments might receive less scrutiny.

The result was a tension visible throughout Kirkpatrick’s tenure. AARO’s credibility with defence and intelligence audiences depended on prioritisation and disciplined case management. Public confidence, meanwhile, often depended on transparency about unresolved cases. The office could improve one objective without fully satisfying the other. That tension helps explain why the debate over the 650 cases was never really about the number itself. It was about which cases AARO considered important enough to investigate deeply, and why. [storage.ghost.io]storage.ghost.ioTHE MISSION, ACTIVITIES, OVERSIGHT, AND BUDGET OF. THE ALL-DOMAIN ANOMALY RESOLUTION OFFICE.Read more… [AARO]aaro.milAARO HomeOur team of experts leads the U.S. government's efforts to address Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) using a rigorous scien…

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Endnotes

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