Within Element 115
Was Element 115 really a prediction?
Lazar's supporters treat element 115 as a hit, but the periodic table made that atomic number a foreseeable target before moscovium was named.
On this page
- What was already expected in superheavy chemistry
- Why atomic number 115 was not a random guess
- Where the prediction argument still has appeal
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Introduction
One of the most repeated arguments in favour of Bob Lazar is that he allegedly “predicted” Element 115 years before scientists discovered it. On the surface, the timeline sounds impressive: Lazar publicly discussed Element 115 in 1989, while the element now known as moscovium was not synthesised until 2003 and was formally named in 2016. Supporters often present that gap as evidence that he possessed insider knowledge. [Seaborg Institute]seaborg.llnl.govSeaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn TSeaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a…
The key question, however, is not whether atomic number 115 eventually appeared on the periodic table. By the late twentieth century, physicists already expected that many heavier elements beyond uranium remained undiscovered. The periodic table contained known gaps, researchers were actively searching for “superheavy” elements, and theoretical discussions about future elements were common in nuclear science. The credibility test is therefore narrower: was choosing 115 genuinely extraordinary in 1989, or was it a plausible number for anyone aware of ongoing research into the upper reaches of the periodic table? [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv The Search for Superheavy ElementsGlenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly…
What was already expected in superheavy chemistry
Long before Lazar entered public UFO discussions, scientists were exploring the possibility of elements heavier than those then known. The search for superheavy elements accelerated during the Cold War era as laboratories in the United States, Soviet Union, Germany and elsewhere pushed beyond uranium and the early transuranic elements. [Debunking Denial]debunkingdenial.comfraud in physics i superheavy element searchesDebunking DenialFraud in Physics, I: Superheavy Element SearchesNov 20, 2023 — Seaborg proposed labeling the elements with atomic numbers…
A particularly important idea was the so-called “island of stability”. Nuclear theorists proposed that certain combinations of protons and neutrons might create unusually long-lived superheavy nuclei, even though most very heavy elements decay rapidly. Interest in this possibility grew throughout the 1960s and later decades. Researchers openly discussed hypothetical elements beyond the known periodic table and tried to predict which atomic numbers might prove especially significant. Wikipedia ThoughtCo That context matters because Element 115 was not invented by Lazar. The number existed as an expected future position in the periodic table. [thoughtco.com]thoughtco.comThought Co Island of StabilityIsland of Stability - Discovering New Superheavy ElementsJan 11, 2020 — The location of the island of stability is predicted based on kno… Scientists did not know whether it could be produced, how stable it might be, or what its exact properties would be, but the concept of a future element with 115 protons was already embedded in the logic of modern chemistry and nuclear physics. [Wikipedia]WikipediaOpen source on wikipedia.org.
In fact, before formal discovery, chemists routinely referred to hypothetical future elements by atomic number or temporary names. Element 115 was known for years under the placeholder designation “ununpentium”, literally meaning “one-one-five”. [Wikipedia]WikipediaIsland of stabilityIsland of stability
Why atomic number 115 was not a random guess
The strongest sceptical argument is that Lazar did not predict the existence of a new category of matter. He selected a number that sat within an already anticipated region of the periodic table.
By 1989, scientists had already discovered elements beyond atomic number 100 and were steadily moving upward. The idea that elements 113, 114, 115, 116 and beyond might eventually be synthesised was not fringe speculation. It was an active area of research. The periodic table was visibly incomplete at its heaviest end, and many textbooks, scientific publications and popular science discussions referred to undiscovered future elements. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv The Search for Superheavy ElementsGlenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly…
Several points weaken the claim that “115” itself was a remarkable prediction:
- The periodic table already implied its existence. If element 114 and element 116 were conceivable, then element 115 was also conceivable. The atomic number was simply one position in a sequence. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv The Search for Superheavy ElementsGlenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly…
- Superheavy-element research was public knowledge. The search for heavier nuclei was not classified UFO science. Laboratories openly discussed efforts to extend the periodic table. [Chemical & Engineering News]cen.acs.orgChemical & Engineering NewsPodcast: Scientists share what it takes to make a superheavy…Apr 24, 2019 — Host Kerri Jansen investigated…
- The number was not uniquely singled out by mainstream theory. While some island-of-stability discussions focused on nearby regions of the chart of nuclides, there was no broad scientific consensus that atomic number 115 would become a revolutionary energy source or gravity-control material. [Wikipedia]WikipediaBob LazarE115 was first synthesized in 2003 and later named moscovium. Lazar said that the propulsion system relied on a stable isotope of E115. I…
- Many nearby numbers could have served the same rhetorical purpose. Had Lazar spoken about element 117 or element 118 before their discovery, supporters could make a similar timeline argument today because those elements were also later synthesised and added to the periodic table. [Stanford Advanced Materials]samaterials.commoscovium element properties and usesStanford Advanced MaterialsMoscovium: Element Properties and Uses12 Jan 2026 — The production of Moscovium is further related to the gene…
This distinction is often lost in popular retellings. Predicting that a blank slot on the periodic table will eventually be filled is different from predicting the specific physical properties that future element will possess.
The difference between “element exists” and “element behaves as claimed”
The most important credibility issue is not whether moscovium exists. It does.
Scientists confirmed the existence of element 115 through accelerator experiments involving americium and calcium nuclei. The resulting atoms survived only briefly before decaying into lighter elements. The discovery established that atomic number 115 is physically real. [Seaborg Institute]seaborg.llnl.govSeaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn TSeaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a… [Sci]sci.newsscience ununpentium element 115 01340Breaking Science NewsUnunpentium: Scientists Confirm Existence of Element 115Aug 28, 2013 — An international team of physicists has found…. News: Breaking Science News
However, that discovery did not validate Lazar’s description of the element.
His story depended on a much stronger proposition: a stable isotope of element 115 that could be stored in quantity, used as reactor fuel and somehow participate in an exotic propulsion system. Publicly known isotopes of moscovium are highly unstable, with measured lifetimes ranging from fractions of a second to milliseconds. AZoM PubChem This creates a crucial logical divide: [pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPub Chem Moscovium | Mc (ElementPubChemMoscovium | Mc (Element) - PubChem - NIHMoscovium's most stable isotope, moscovium-289, has a half-life of about 220 milliseconds…
ClaimCurrent scientific statusAn element with atomic number 115 can existConfirmed [Seaborg Institute]seaborg.llnl.govSeaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn TSeaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a… Element 115 can be synthesised in laboratoriesConfirmed [Seaborg Institute]seaborg.llnl.govSeaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn TSeaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a… Known isotopes of element 115 are stable enough for industrial useNot supported by current evidence [AZoM]azom.comMoscovium (Mc) was synthesized using a high-speed beam of 48Ca ions. The beam was directed at 243Am (Z=95) in a…Read more… Element 115 powers gravity-based spacecraftNo publicly verified evidence [HowStuffWorks]science.howstuffworks.comHowStuffWorksDoes the Real Element 115 Have a Connection With UFOs?"Element 115, or moscovium, is a man-made, superheavy element that has…
For sceptics, this means the later discovery of moscovium confirms only the least controversial part of Lazar’s narrative.
Why the prediction argument still has appeal
Despite those objections, the Element 115 argument continues to resonate with many supporters.
Part of the appeal comes from the simple chronology. A casual observer hears that Lazar discussed Element 115 in 1989 and then learns that scientists later announced the existence of Element 115. The sequence feels intuitive and memorable. It creates the impression that he was ahead of public science. [Wikipedia]WikipediaOpen source on wikipedia.org.
Another reason is the continuing discussion around the island of stability. Although no stable isotope of moscovium has been found, nuclear physicists still investigate whether heavier regions of the periodic table may contain nuclei with much longer lifetimes than those currently observed. The underlying theoretical idea was never disproved simply because the first synthesised isotopes decayed quickly. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv The Search for Superheavy ElementsGlenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly… [3Wikipedia 3ThoughtCo(#endnote-4 "Snippet: Island]WikipediaIsland of stabilityIsland of stability of Stability - Discovering New Superheavy ElementsJan 11, 2020 — The location of the island of stability is predicted based on kno…”)
Supporters therefore argue that public laboratories may have produced only the wrong isotopes, while a more stable version could exist elsewhere. Critics respond that this remains speculation rather than evidence, and that no verified isotope remotely approaches the properties Lazar described. [Reddit]reddit.comBob Lazar did NOT predict Element 115!May 1989 issue of…January 3, 2021 — The island of stability is researched since the 1920s. The limits… The fact he was talking abou… [AZoM]azom.comAZoMMoscovium - Discovery, Properties and Applications13 Jan 2023 — However, isotope -289Mc is considered the most stable with a half-lif…
The debate ultimately survives because it sits between two facts that are both true:
- Lazar discussed Element 115 before its laboratory synthesis.
- The later discovery did not demonstrate the extraordinary characteristics he attributed to it.
What the periodic-table gap really tells us about Lazar’s credibility
As a credibility test, Element 115 is less decisive than it first appears.
If the claim were simply that scientists would one day identify an element with atomic number 115, the prediction is not especially remarkable. The periodic table already pointed toward undiscovered superheavy elements, and researchers were actively searching for them. [arXiv]arxiv.orgarXiv The Search for Superheavy ElementsGlenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly…
If the claim is instead that Lazar correctly described a stable isotope of element 115 capable of powering advanced craft, the evidence remains absent. Moscovium’s discovery did not confirm those specific properties, and no publicly available data show anything resembling the material Lazar described. AZoM PubChem That leaves Element 115 in an unusual position within the broader Bob Lazar debate. It is neither the clear vindication often claimed by supp [pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov]pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.govPub Chem Moscovium | Mc (ElementPubChemMoscovium | Mc (Element) - PubChem - NIHMoscovium's most stable isotope, moscovium-289, has a half-life of about 220 milliseconds… orters nor the complete non-event sometimes suggested by critics. The discovery of moscovium showed that atomic number 115 was a real place on the periodic table, but it did not settle the much larger question that matters for Lazar’s story: whether a stable, technologically useful version of that element ever existed at all. [Seaborg Institute]seaborg.llnl.govSeaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn TSeaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a…
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Endnotes
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Source: Wikipedia
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscovium -
Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv The Search for Superheavy Elements
Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.04064Source snippet
Glenn Seaborg and Walter Loveland suggested in 1990 that the term SHE should be associated with “an element whose lifetime is strikingly...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: Island of stability
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_of_stability -
Source: thoughtco.com
Title: Thought Co Island of Stability
Link: https://www.thoughtco.com/island-stability-discovering-new-superheavy-elements-4018746Source snippet
Island of Stability - Discovering New Superheavy ElementsJan 11, 2020 — The location of the island of stability is predicted based on kno...
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Source: sci.news
Title: science ununpentium element 115 01340
Link: https://www.sci.news/physics/science-ununpentium-element-115-01340.htmlSource snippet
Breaking Science NewsUnunpentium: Scientists Confirm Existence of Element 115Aug 28, 2013 — An international team of physicists has found...
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Source: azom.com
Link: https://www.azom.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=10266Source snippet
Moscovium (Mc) was synthesized using a high-speed beam of 48Ca ions. The beam was directed at 243Am (Z=95) in a...Read more...
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Source: azom.com
Link: https://www.azom.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=7958Source snippet
AZoMMoscovium - Discovery, Properties and Applications13 Jan 2023 — However, isotope -289Mc is considered the most stable with a half-lif...
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Source: science.howstuffworks.com
Link: https://science.howstuffworks.com/space/aliens-ufos/element-115.htmSource snippet
HowStuffWorksDoes the Real Element 115 Have a Connection With UFOs?"Element 115, or moscovium, is a man-made, superheavy element that has...
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Source: Wikipedia
Title: Bob Lazar
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_LazarSource snippet
E115 was first synthesized in 2003 and later named moscovium. Lazar said that the propulsion system relied on a stable isotope of E115. I...
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Source: arxiv.org
Title: arXiv Superheavy Elements: Beyond the 7th Period in the Periodic Table
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.05805 -
Source: arxiv.org
Link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.19650 -
Source: reddit.com
Title: Bob Lazar did NOT predict Element 115!
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/UFOs/comments/kpazev/bob_lazar_did_not_predict_element_115_may_1989/Source snippet
May 1989 issue of...January 3, 2021 — The island of stability is researched since the 1920s. The limits... The fact he was talking abou...
Published: January 3, 2021
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Source: reddit.com
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/ufo/comments/itou3o/why_does_it_increase_lazars_credibility_that_he/Source snippet
Why does it increase Lazar's credibility that he knew about...First, I want to say that I'm open-minded about Bob Lazar...
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Source: reddit.com
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/Physics/comments/1b03ukf/a_thought_on_the_fabled_island_of_stability_in/Source snippet
When a star goes nova it creates many...Read more...
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Source: reddit.com
Title: Bob Lazar and Element 115
Link: https://www.reddit.com/r/HighStrangeness/comments/em25vc/bob_lazar_and_element_115_its_been_recently/Source snippet
Its been recently proven to be...That part of the periodic table only goes up to 118. He could have just picked a blank spot, where the...
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Source: science.howstuffworks.com
Title: bob lazar
Link: https://science.howstuffworks.com/space/aliens-ufos/bob-lazar.htmSource snippet
Lazar, UFO Hoaxster"Element 115, or moscovium, is a man-made, superheavy element that has 115 protons in its nucleus," emailed Jacklyn Ga...
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Source: seaborg.llnl.gov
Title: Seaborg Institute Superheavy Element Discovery | Glenn T
Link: https://seaborg.llnl.gov/research/superheavy-element-discoverySource snippet
Seaborg InstituteIn 2003, the team of scientists observed atomic decay patterns that confirmed the existence of element 115 (moscovium) a...
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Source: debunkingdenial.com
Title: fraud in physics i superheavy element searches
Link: https://debunkingdenial.com/fraud-in-physics-i-superheavy-element-searches/Source snippet
Debunking DenialFraud in Physics, I: Superheavy Element SearchesNov 20, 2023 — Seaborg proposed labeling the elements with atomic numbers...
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Source: cen.acs.org
Link: https://cen.acs.org/physical-chemistry/periodic-table/IYPT-Podcast-Scientists-share-what-it-takes-to-make-a-superheavy-element/97/i17Source snippet
Chemical & Engineering NewsPodcast: Scientists share what it takes to make a superheavy...Apr 24, 2019 — Host Kerri Jansen investigated...
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Source: samaterials.com
Title: moscovium element properties and uses
Link: https://www.samaterials.com/blog/moscovium-element-properties-and-uses.htmlSource snippet
Stanford Advanced MaterialsMoscovium: Element Properties and Uses12 Jan 2026 — The production of Moscovium is further related to the gene...
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Source: pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Title: Pub Chem Moscovium | Mc (Element)
Link: https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/element/MoscoviumSource snippet
PubChemMoscovium | Mc (Element) - PubChem - NIHMoscovium's most stable isotope, moscovium-289, has a half-life of about 220 milliseconds...
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Source: arxivblog.com
Link: https://arxivblog.com/?p=385Source snippet
First superheavy element found in nature28 Apr 2008 — Yeah, maybe, first AFTER element 115 as Bob (Robert) Lazar has previously mentioned...
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Source: mysteryofmatter.net
Title: Island of Stability
Link: https://www.mysteryofmatter.net/island_of_stability.htmlSource snippet
The Mystery of MatterIn the late 1960s, Seaborg proposed that out beyond element 110 lay an “Island of Stability” where long-lived superh...
Additional References
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Source: chemeurope.com
Link: https://www.chemeurope.com/en/encyclopedia/Ununpentium.htmlSource snippet
UnunpentiumUnunpentium is the temporary name of a synthetic superheavy element in the periodic table that has the temporary symbol Uup an...
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Source: facebook.com
Link: https://www.facebook.com/OMGTheWhyFiles/posts/element-115-alien-power-source/1383082073827289/Source snippet
Element 115: Alien Power SourceAccording to lazar, element 115 is a stable isotope of a super heavy element that does not occur naturally...
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Source: otherhand.org
Link: https://otherhand.org/home-page/area-51-and-other-strange-places/bluefire-main/bluefire/the-bob-lazar-corner/element-115-tidbits/Source snippet
Element 115 tidbitsCalculations with nuclear shell models have led to the expectation that element 114, with 114 protons and 184 neutrons...
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Source: medium.com
Link: https://medium.com/%40mattygh01/simulating-element-115-pulses-in-the-dual-sheet-model-an-in-depth-educational-exploration-7969516d94cfSource snippet
Simulating Element 115 Pulses in the Dual Sheet ModelDepth: If Mc-299 stabilizes (predicted half-life ~1 s), pulses could generate antima...
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Source: youtube.com
Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoI5QbNKVsYSource snippet
Science of Bob Lazar's Element 115 ExploredBob Lazar has captured the imaginations of skeptics who question if we are alone in the univer...
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Source: wired.com
Title: new elements periodic table nihonium moscovium tennessine oganesson
Link: https://www.wired.com/story/new-elements-periodic-table-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-oganessonSource snippet
These elements, numbered 113, 115, 117, and 118 respectively, are man-made and were discovered by scientists from Japan, Russia, and the...
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Source: physics.stackexchange.com
Title: can moscovium 299 exist and is it possible to predict how stable it will be
Link: https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/769462/can-moscovium-299-exist-and-is-it-possible-to-predict-how-stable-it-will-beSource snippet
This question is off-topic. It is not currently accepting answers. We deal with mainstream physics here. Questions about the...
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Source: intechbearing.com
Link: https://intechbearing.com/blogs/news/getting-closer-to-element-115?srsltid=AfmBOoqPG7neIF-BmgC90hDxWBNhfCDNqXfWRRAa1toGNNmWc2AjSVtCSource snippet
Interestingly, all of these four elements are super heavy, lab-made and VERY radioactive.Read more...
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Source: rsc.org
Link: https://www.rsc.org/news/2017/january/have-we-reached-the-shores-of-the-island-of-stabilitySource snippet
As of 2016, these new elements will be known as Nihonium, Moscovium, Tennesine and...Read more...
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Source: medium.com
Link: https://medium.com/%40mattygh01/element-115-moscovium-from-superheavy-synthesis-to-speculative-antigravity-in-the-dual-sheet-85c406816eacSource snippet
ond uranium (Z=92), synthesized through heavy-ion fusion...Read more...
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